Russia is expected to ramp up its offensive against Avdiivka and is shelling nearby Ukrainian positions, local officials have reported, as Moscow’s forces continue their attempts to take the town despite huge losses.

Local official Vitaliy Barabash said that this has been the “largest offensive” on the town since the war began in 2014.

On Oct. 17, Ukrainian forces were reported to have repelled 15 Russian attacks on Avdiivka, with up to 60 attacks a day in the middle of last week. While the attacks seemed to have quietened, Barabash noted that “round the clock” skirmishes remained in the surrounding area.

“Most likely, in the next few days we expect this escalation to continue,” he warned.

On Oct. 13, it was reported that Russia launched a failed attack against Avdiivka with 100-200 armored vehicles under the command of Russia’s 25th Combined Arms Army, leading to what might potentially be its worst combat losses since mid-February this year.

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Geo-located images have shown 20-40 Russian armored vehicles, led by tanks, repeatedly attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses but to no avail.

According to open-source analysts, Russia has been using outdated equipment in its bid to take over Avdiivka with dismal results. Photos have shown a Russian BTR-50 APC, which ceased production in 1970, being destroyed alongside a damaged T-64BV tank unit.

The use of outdated equipment might signify Russia’s dwindling supplies of equipment, or potentially its strategy to preserve newer equipment by sacrificing its less-valuable assets — and the soldiers manning them.

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 29, 2024
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ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 29, 2024

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Avdiivka was among the first targets to be attacked at the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, and it has seen fierce combat over the last 20 months.

The city remains a strategic stronghold for Ukrainian forces due to its proximity to Donetsk city, a key city under Russian occupation. Avdiivka might play a significant role in Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive in its bid to reclaim occupied territories.

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Comments ( 1)

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William Spillman
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Putin continues the Czarist tradition of continuing to throw troops, no matter how untrained or ineffective, into battle until there is an outcome, usually against the Czar, or the 'little' czar in this case. So many men have either been killed in battle, made useless through injury and/or PTSD or deserted the country that Putin now rules a landscape of graves and ashes. He has destroyed Russia for at least one generation if not more, yet he continues and no Russian hero rises up to stop him. I think at this point that Putin is either criminally insane, living in a bubble or doesn't know what to do other than keeping on keeping on and killing the flower of the Russian people. He is made of evil, of that there is no doubt.

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