Munich Security Conference Insider: Day 2 - Zelensky, Scholz and Shadow of Trump

Russia’s ongoing assault on Ukraine dominated the discussion during the second day of the annual Munich Security Conference (MSC) as Olaf Scholz and Volodymyr Zelensky took the center stage to deliver their key messages.

It was clear that the reluctant leader of Europe, Germany, has finally come to terms with its responsibility to lead the way in defense spending and Ukraine aid.

Zelensky’s key appeal was to the entire global community to do “whatever it takes'' to defend the rules-based international order and, instead of asking when the war in Ukraine will end, ponder why Putin is still able to wage it.

The leader of the embattled Ukrainian nation also highlighted his readiness to bring presidential candidate Trump “to the frontline” if he should agree to visit the beleaguered country that he and his party mates are reluctant to support.

Zelensky made his appearance at the MSC after visiting key European capitals of Berlin and Paris to sign important bi-lateral security agreements with both countries. Visibly tired, but still energetic and able to joke, he received a standing ovation before delivering his key message on the need to turn 2024 into a year of restoring a rules-based international order.

Having ruined the myths of Russia’s military might, Ukrainians have been resisting Russia’s aggression for 724 days. This was also the title of a gripping photo exhibition featured at this year’s MSC.

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Clearly frustrated by the lack of sufficient military deliveries from Ukraine’s partners, Zelensky pointed that Ukraine’s ability to resist is “only limited by the range of our weapons.” He continued to emphasize the acute need for air defense systems and long-range missiles, while also praising Ukraine’s internal capabilities to produce and utilize drones effectively on the battlefield.

Zelensky spent a significant amount of time speaking about Putin, whom he described as a “thug” and a “criminal” that must be defeated.

“We should not fear Putin’s defeat,” the Ukrainian president said. In fact, the impunity afforded Russian with respect to its previous record in Chechnya or Georgia have shaped the Russia of today. One of the key rhetorical questions raised by Zelensky in his address was “how long will the world let Russia be like this?!” 

On the economic front, he highlighted the need to close all sanctions loopholes in order to defeat Russia, and to ensure the continuation of the US support. These messages were echoed by the Ukrainian activists staging a major protest on the sidelines of the MSC at Munich’s Odeonsplatz, a historical venue where Hitler used to organize his rallies in the 1930s.

“Make Russia pay” was one of the key messages voiced by the organizers of this mass action, stressing the need to confiscate 300 billion dollars of frozen Russia’s Central Bank reserves in Ukraine’s favor.

 “Evil will never prevail if the forces of good are united and act together,” proclaimed the Ukrainian leader.

The shadow of the former US president Donald Trump was omnipresent. The fear of his re-election found its way into keynote speeches and numerous questions from the attendees of the event.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Vice President Kamala Harris smile at the end of a press conference at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, southern Germany on February 17, 2024.WOLFGANG RATTAY / POOL / AFP  

Zelensky also acknowledged that he had publicly invited presidential candidate Trump to visit Ukraine. “If Trump would come, I am ready to go with him to the frontline,” said the Ukrainian leader.

In the aftermath of Trump’s outrageous remarks on possibly encouraging Russia to attack NATO countries that do not pay their way in the alliance, the focus of Chancellor Scholtz’s speech was on the need for the European states to invest more.

“We have a pressing need to keep developing the European pillar of security for NATO, regardless of how the war in Ukraine will end,” said the German leader who sounded much more resolute compared to last year. 

“There will be no peace dictated by Moscow. We will not allow it!” stated Scholz, adding that Germany’s security commitment to Ukraine is “durable and long-term.”

This proclaimed commitment was corroborated by the words of Germany’s minister of defense Boris Pistorius, who referred to Germany’s commitment to Ukraine as being “until victory” - language German officials never dared to use before.

And, in the end, it is not words but deeds that matter. The most recent bi-lateral deal signed by Zelensky and Scholtz in Berlin this week commits $1.2 billion of additional funding from Berlin for air defense and artillery that Ukraine desperately needs.

According to Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Tracker, the US is still slightly ahead of Europe in military assistance to Ukraine at €43.2 billion, but Europe is quickly catching up due to a continuous political gridlock in the US and Germany playing an increasingly more important role. 

Currently, Germany ranks second after US in overall aid to Ukraine, including military assistance. Until now, Ukraine received €22 billion collectively from Berlin, with €17.7 billion given for military purposes. This is roughly 0.5% of Germany's GDP.

Compare this to France, which boasts one of the largest military and industrial complexes in Europe. Until now, France’s overall bi-lateral aid to Ukraine amounted to €1.8 billion only, with military support standing at €635 million (0.02% of GDP).

When asked about the prospect of delivering Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine, Scholz was deliberately vague, suggesting no readiness to do so. But given Germany’s metamorphosis vis-a-vis Russia over the past two years of war, it would not be surprising to hear Scholz announce the deliveries of Taurus missiles at the next year’s MSC or earlier.

The key question is – will it be too late?