The Swedish news site SVT Nyheter, citing open-source satellite imagery, said that Russia was setting up troop camps, building vehicle warehouses, opening and refurbishing airbases just miles from the Finnish border.
Finland abandoned decades of neutrality to become the 31st NATO member on April 4, 2023 – a direct result of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Its membership not only added to the alliance’s military strength but further extended its border with Russia by 1,340 kilometers (830 miles).
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Russia began to re-establish the Soviet-era Leningrad Military District command structure near Finland in December 2023, likely in response to what Moscow saw as an unwelcome NATO expansion.
At Kamenka, just 55 kilometers (35 miles) from Finland, almost 150 military tents, capable of housing 2,000 personnel, have been erected since the turn of the year.
In Petrozavodsk, around 160 kilometers (100 miles) from the border, three large storage warehouses have appeared, which are assessed as being suitable for around 50 armored vehicles, with a fourth under construction.
The redundant Severomorsk-2 airfield, sited 180 kilometers (110 miles) from Finland and 112 kilometers (70 miles) from Norway, has been reactivated with helicopters now spotted parked along the runway.
In addition, the Olenya airfield in Russia’s Murmansk region, a base for strategic bombers used in strikes on Ukraine, is less than 150 kilometers (100 miles) away.
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Finland’s Deputy Chief of Defense Lieutenant General Vesa Virtane said he believed the plan was to eventually station as many as five divisions, an army corps and support units adjacent to the border.
At the time of Finland being granted NATO membership and following Sweden’s accession in March 2024, Russia warned that it would implement a “military-technical response.”
Sweden’s Chief of Defense Michael Claesson told SVT, “When we applied for NATO membership, Russia said it would take such steps. We are now seeing that happen.”
The question on everyone’s lips is, will Finland be the next territory to enter the Kremlin’s crosshairs? Several commentators have said that this activity echoes that which preceded the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, while others put it down to an unexpected response to NATO coming even closer to Russia’s doorstep.
Russia insists it does not plan to attack and is merely bolstering its own defenses in response to the strategic change caused by the two new members of the alliance.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that the idea of his country attacking a NATO member state was “complete nonsense.”
Putin made similar remarks before the invasion of Ukraine.
His statement is also in stark contrast to the thinly veiled threats of other Russian officials, including Russia’s former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and particularly Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, who has said that NATO’s new members could now become “targets for retaliatory or even pre-emptive [nuclear] strikes.”
In any event, analysts say it is now incumbent on NATO to take appropriate actions to counter the Russian change in posture without unnecessarily escalating the situation.
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