How to Handle Russia’s Shadow Fleet?

On Tuesday, a Russian fighter jet briefly entered Nato airspace after the Estonian navy tried to intercept an unflagged tanker in the Baltic Sea which apparently belongs to Russia’s “shadow fleet”. Estonia’s national press calls for consequences.

Time to review strategic decisions

Postimees questions the way Estonia reacted in this situation:

We may not know the true purpose of the operation, but if we wanted to intercept the tanker and failed, this is something for the Estonian authorities to consider. The course of the war in Ukraine has shown that Russia is capable of learning, and it is equally capable of learning how to conduct hybrid operations and protect a shadow fleet. We, too, must learn and ask critical questions about our strategic decisions. ... For several reasons, it makes more sense to have the police and not the military monitor the shadow fleet. ... The police don’t have their own vessels and the entire chain of command remains somewhat unclear.

Deterrence must be plausible

Estonia has shown itself to be weak, Eesti Päevaleht complains:

The attempts by Estonia, Finland and Germany to intercept individual ships as a deterrent have failed so far. Worse still would be a public demonstration of their impotence - and that is what Estonia has done now: putting on a show of strength, but then failing to follow through on it is probably the worst solution. Of course, these ships must be stopped. The only way to do this is to coordinate efforts with the entire Nordic region, including Denmark, which is guarding the entrance. But we are just playing at war without knowing where one step or another will lead.

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