OPINION: Russia’s Intelligence Attacks on Serbia – a Deliberate Attempt at Destabilization

An official statement by Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) that “The Serbian military industry stabs Russia in the back,” represents the most direct and crude attack by Moscow on Belgrade in modern history. The statement, published in every Russian pro-regime media outlet, including the Serbian edition of “Sputnik,” openly accuses “the Serbian defense industry of supplying hundreds of thousands of grenades and millions of bullets to Kyiv, in defiance of officially declared neutrality.”

It goes on to say that this is done through “falsified end-user certificates” passed through NATO member states – primarily Poland, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria, along with more recently several African countries. The SVR emphasized that there could be no humanitarian justification for these supplies, as their sole purpose was “to kill and maim Russian soldiers and civilians,” stressing that this was done with the consent of the Serbian leadership.

This announcement is neither a diplomatic error nor is it a routine propaganda announcement. It is an operation. A political strike. Targeted. Deliberate, and directly aimed at the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, and his government. Another factor that marked this as being out of the norm is that the “challenge” to Belgrade was not done through Moscow’s traditional propaganda channels but through the official Russian intelligence service – indicating it was likely signed off and directed from the very top of the Kremlin.

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Russia has publicly and officially accused Serbia of arming its enemy without cloaking it in any form of diplomatic packaging. This represents not only a direct attack on Belgrade by the SVR but is also a brutal attempt to discredit and destabilize President Aleksandar Vučić.

It is interesting that the very argument that has been used in the West for years, that Serbia was “Russia’s Balkan Trojan horse,” has now been directly challenged by Moscow. With this most open of attacks on the Serbian defense industry and, above all on President Vučić’s policies, the SVR has shown its nervousness and frustration in exposing an essential truth – Serbia is not under the Kremlin’s control.

As someone who has been following and analyzing security and political trends in the region for years, I can testify to how quietly but determinedly the Serbian state has been moving closer to the West. The purchase of the French Rafale fighter jets, the ending of Russia’s energy monopoly through agreement with the EU on lithium and renewable energies, the opening of the gas interconnector with Bulgaria – are all concrete steps toward the West.

At the same time, Moscow saw all of this as a betrayal. The SVR has now decided to set down this “betrayal” in writing, accusing and directly targeting Vučić as a politician who – so Russia claims – has benefited from the blood of “fraternal Slavic peoples.”

The accusation is not only cynical and shameless but also dangerous. Russia is attempting to promote internal divisions in Serbia, to mobilize extreme pro-Russian forces – which may not be numerous but are vocal and instrumentalized. It follows a classic destabilization model: initially labeling you as a traitor, then isolating you, and finally allowing domestic actors to overthrow you from within.

It is therefore important that both Ukraine and the EU clearly recognize what is happening here. This open accusation by the SVR against Serbia actually confirms that Serbia is, in practice, far removed from Russia. This contrasts significantly with some EU member states that have formally endorsed the sanctions while increasing their trade with Moscow.

Aleksandar Vučić is neither a Russian “agent,” nor is Belgrade an outstation of Russia. If they were, the SVR would not have published such a statement. Russia is aware that it is losing Serbia, and with it the last illusion that the Balkans is a zone in which it has influence. Hence it behaves like a wounded imperialist and not like a friend.

For more than ten years, Serbia has been making strategic shifts that are moving the country away from Russia’s embrace. This process is not linear, nor is it without resistance. But every concrete step – whether it concerns security cooperation, energy policy, or relations with NATO and the EU – has been going in one direction. That direction is not toward the East, but rather toward Western structures.

The Kremlin knows this. And that is why the SVR is not only targeting Serbia on the international stage with its current announcement. What is perhaps even more dangerous is that this is a message to pro-Russian actors within Serbia – the time has come to stop Vučić, weaken and overthrow his rule. The goal is to take advantage of the current turmoil, student demonstrations, dissatisfaction, and people’s emotional attachment to Russia in order to create opportunities for the derailment of Serbia’s path toward Europe.

The Russian message is unmistakable: “Vučić has left the path of brotherhood with Russia and taken a diversion.” That’s why he should be taken down. Parts of the Serbian public clearly hear this signal. That makes this operation particularly dangerous.

While some European politicians continue to accuse Belgrade of “sitting on two chairs,” they have not realized that Russia has clearly seen where Belgrade is now perched. Now that the Kremlin has lost almost all leverage, it has decided to strike hard.

It is therefore hypocritical that certain EU officials continue to question Serbia’s European course. Instead of recognizing the country’s position in a complex political environment, they focus on superficial signals while ignoring fundamental changes. Moscow does not ignore them – seeing the truth, it attacks.

Therefore, both Ukraine and its allies in the West must understand how difficult it is to play politics in Serbia today. With a prevailing pro-Russian sentiment among many citizens, with Russian propaganda filling element of the media, and with parts of the security apparatus that still harbor sympathies for Moscow, President Vučić is pursuing a policy of rational shift toward Europe.

And that is precisely why he is a target.

The SVR’s announcement is not about grenades or bullets. It is a political message: Serbia has betrayed us. A message that is not directed at Belgrade but at the domestic pro-Russian audience in Serbia to shake stability, provoke revolt, create chaos, and stop the process of European integration.

I am making an simple appeal: recognize where Belgrade stands today. Do not judge by polls; do not judge by tabloid headlines. Look at where the strategic agreements are, where the investments are, and where the alliances are.

And look at who is attacking Serbia today. That will tell you everything you need to know.

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.