Does Use of Polish SIM Cards in Russian UAVs Indicate Latest Incursions Were Planned?

Russia’s use of foreign Subscriber Identity Modules (SIM cards) in their drones equipped with 4G modems was identified as far back as November 2023. Drones shot down over Ukraine were found to contain SIMs produced by Ukraine’s Kyivstar, which ISW suggested at the time were intended to use the Ukrainian network to better steer and direct the Shahed UAVs toward targets while hiding their origin from potential electronic warfare (EW) detection.

Following the incursion of several Russian drones into Poland overnight on Sept. 9-10, Wednesday’s headlines in Ukraine’s Defense Express (DE) and the US “Medium” websites opined: “The Kremlin has been preparing drone attacks on Poland since July.” The accusation was based on the fact that SIM cards provided by Polish and Lithuanian operators had been detected in Russian drones brought down in Ukraine in early July.

In response to several separate incursions over Polish (and Romanian) airspace earlier this year former Polish Airforce officer Gen. Tomasz Drewniak said in August “By releasing a device onto our territory, the Russians are checking how our system is raised, at what time we raise our alert forces.”

Warsaw described this latest drone incursion into Poland as “an unprecedented violation of airspace” and “a massive provocation.” However, DE and Medium went further, categorizing it as “the first large-scale attack on NATO territory since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion and “evidence of a gradual pattern of escalation [on Moscow’s part].

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A Russian report from the “Safe Region” monitoring center found no Ukrainian drones in Bryansk’s Pochep district at the time of the attack.

That view was quickly picked up by US politicians. South Carolina GOP Representative Joe Wilson posted on X that “Russia is attacking NATO ally Poland with Iranian shahid [sic] drones less than a week after President Trump hosted President Nawrocki at the White House.” He went on to call it an act of war calling on President Donald Trump to “respond with mandatory sanctions that will bankrupt the Russian war machine and arm Ukraine with weapons capable of striking Russia.”

Senator Dick Durban, a Democrat from Illinois, also took aim at Russia’s leadership on X saying, “Repeated violations of NATO airspace by Russian drones are fair warning that Vladimir Putin is testing our resolve to protect Poland and the Baltic nations. After the carnage Putin continues to visit on Ukraine, these incursions cannot be ignored.”

The Polish journalist Marek Budzisz, said in July that the use of Polish and other foreign SIM cards directly indicated an attempt by Russia to test whether it’s drones could retain connectivity over NATO territory as a precursor for flights over member nations.

Medium, quoting “experts” said there was more. Fitting these SIM cards was not just about flight control. They allow UAVs to transmit real-time reconnaissance data, enable flight paths to be amended mid-mission, include video feeds, and obtain electronic data from air defense, communication and EW systems.

It is not yet clear if the UAVs shot down during this incident were carrying Polish (or other SIMs). If they were, then some media suggest this was more than just a careless or reckless overspill from Russia’s war on Ukraine (or, as some suggest, a prelude to forthcoming military exercises in Belarus), but a premeditated test of NATO’s readiness.