A unilateral withdrawal of American forces from Europe would be “dangerously short-sighted” at a time when Russia is actively waging a hybrid campaign of sabotage, assassinations and drone incursions across the continent, former US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried warned.
In an exclusive interview with Kyiv Post, Fried said it is legitimate for Washington to press European allies to increase defense spending and contribute more to NATO, but argued that this should not come at the expense of weakening US deterrence.
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“It’s a very good thing to push the Europeans to build up their militaries and contribute more to NATO’s Article 5 defense of Europe,” Fried said. “And I don’t mind the Trump administration pushing.”
Fried’s warning comes as the Pentagon reviews the US military posture in Europe. Reports indicate that Washington may reduce the pool of American capabilities available under the NATO Force Model during major crises, as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth assesses allied contributions.
‘The Europeans are doing more’
Fried argued that Washington has already won much of the burden-sharing debate, with several European states ramping up defense spending and military production in response to the Russian threat.
“To push the Europeans to do more is a good thing, but frankly the Europeans are doing more,” Fried said. “The Poles, Finns, Swedes, Baltic states and Romania have been doing it for a while. The Germans have now joined them. They are building up their military because of the Russian threat.”
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While Fried said the UK is still locked in a domestic political battle over defense spending and France “could be doing more,” he stressed that the overall trajectory in Europe is moving in Washington’s favor.
“The fact is the US is winning this argument with Europe about Europeans doing more,” Fried said.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has also said European allies are beginning to fill gaps left by reduced US commitments to NATO crisis plans.
It’s not 1995, it’s 2026
The danger, according to Fried, lies in uncoordinated or unilateral US drawdowns that could signal weakness to Moscow.
“To start pulling out US forces or acting in an uncoordinated, unilateral fashion in the face of an actual Russian threat does nothing for human security,” Fried said. “It’s as if it’s 1995 and we can pull forces out of Europe without consequence. It’s not 1995. It’s 2026, and Russia is threatening.”
Fried cautioned that any perceived softening of Washington’s commitment to NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause could invite dangerous miscalculations by Moscow, particularly along NATO’s eastern flank.
“They may be tempted by all of this talk of US withdrawal or this disparagement of NATO,” Fried warned. “They might be tempted to try something in the Baltics. I don’t think they will, but it doesn’t matter what I think.”
He said using ambiguity over Article 5 as leverage against allies would be extremely dangerous.
“For the US to suggest that it is not behind Article 5 in order to put pressure on the Europeans is an invitation to a catastrophe,” Fried said.
Land the win
Instead of threatening withdrawal, Fried said Washington should focus on locking in Europe’s shift toward higher defense spending and stronger military capabilities.
“I think the US would be better advised to find a way to close the deal with the Europeans on greater European defense spending,” Fried said.
He argued Ukraine should also be part of that conversation, as Kyiv has already proven it can strengthen European security.
“Ukraine’s development of drones is now famously world class,” Fried said. “The Ukrainian army is serious. Ukraine can be a net contributor to European security.”
Fried said Washington should recognize that many European governments, especially Germany, have already accepted the need to do more.
“Instead of the US bashing the Europeans, the West Europeans in particular, and threatening to leave them open to the Russians to prove some damn point, it would be far better to simply take the win,” Fried said.
“The win means that the Europeans, particularly the Germans, have acknowledged that they need to do more on defense,” he added. “Land the win. Land the deal.”
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