Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has warned that Russia could stage a “provocation” against NATO, even if it lacks the military strength for a full-scale attack.
Speaking on the eve of the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, Sikorski told CNN: “Russia cannot attack NATO in force.
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“As long as Ukraine is bravely resisting, Putin cannot invade even the Baltic states.
“But what they are capable of is some kind of provocation, using false flags, and drones... and then pretending to be responding to our fake, non-existent attack.”
His comments come after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Warsaw was preparing “very intensively” for a range of security scenarios following reports that the US had warned of the risk of an armed Russian provocation on NATO’s eastern flank.
Sikorski said Russia had previously sought to manufacture a pretext for war and argued that public warnings could help deter such actions.
“We have to be prepared, we have to tell them... we know they are up to no good,” he said. “I hope these warnings mean that Putin doesn’t press the button on a provocation.”
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US soldiers join a NATO military exercise in Poland. Photo: Sean Gallup/Getty Images
Sikorski also said US troop reductions in Europe were “clearly coming” but suggested it would be foolish for Russia to test the alliance, which he said was entering a new phase.
He said Washington was asking European allies to build stronger conventional forces while the US shifted towards providing strategic capabilities such as the nuclear umbrella, logistics and intelligence.
“I think by the end of the decade we will have conventional forces by European allies plus a ‘NATO 3’ kind of US role that Putin would be very irresponsible to try to test,” Sikorski said.
The Polish foreign minister also dismissed suggestions that political disagreements with President Donald Trump had weakened the alliance.
“We have the same threat assessment,” he said. “We can bicker about levels of spending but still be good allies.”
He argued NATO had emerged stronger since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, pointing to the accession of Finland and Sweden and sharply higher European defense spending.
Poland now spends 4.8% of GDP on defense and, despite debate over US commitments, Sikorski said Warsaw still trusts Washington. “Yes we do, and we have US troops on our soil, and we are asking for more.”
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