Daily Briefing from Ukraine

·      Top 6 Headlines

·      Ukraine Summer Offensive Summary

·      President Zelensky’s Message of the Day

Top Headlines

1.     President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday warned that Russia was planning “dangerous provocations” at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.  The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “officially informed [citizens] about the possible preparation of a provocation on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP).” It said that unknown explosive charges have been placed on the outer roof of the third and fourth power units of the ZNPP. The Ukrainian health ministry urged residents to be ready for a "possible evacuation" if there is an explosion at the site.

2.     43 people, including 12 children, were injured in a Russian strike on the town of Pervomaysk in eastern Kharkiv region on Tuesday, according to the regional governor. Authorities also said that Russian shelling on a residential area of the southern frontline city of Kherson had killed two people. This follows eight civilian deaths from Russian shelling and missiles in Sumy on Monday.

3.     Inside Kyiv’s St Michael’s cathedral, mourners gathered Tuesday to bid farewell to Ukrainian writer Victoria Amelina, who died of wounds suffered in a Russian missile strike on a pizzeria in Kramatorsk. The coffin of the rising star in Ukrainian literature was placed at the center of the cathedral, draped with the blue-and-yellow national flag. She died in the hospital four days after the Russian attack, one of 13 people, including three children, killed in the strike. Her family, including her 10-year-old son, as well as several writers and journalists attended the ceremony. Her body will then be taken for burial in her native city of Lviv. Amelina was in Kramatorsk as part of her work as a war crimes researcher.

Other Topics of Interest

The ‘Seven Commandments’ for Using OSINT – According to Bellingcat

The investigative journalist group advocates caution in the media's reliance on open-source intelligence and our impulse to always consider the information they offer as credible and verified.

4.     Kyiv told Georgia’s ambassador to temporarily leave Ukraine on Tuesday, accusing Tbilisi of mistreating jailed ex-president and Ukrainian national Mikheil Saakashvili. Earlier this week, Saakashvili, Georgia's president from 2004-2013, appeared on television for the first time in months gaunt and weakened. The 55-year-old, who was detained on his return to Georgia from exile in Ukraine, has lost more than half his weight since he was detained in October 2021.

5.     Russia said on Tuesday that Ukraine had attacked Moscow with at least five drones and that were all either shot down or jammed. The attack caused one of the city’s main airports to close for several hours. Russia further accused the US and NATO of enabling the potentially Ukrainian drone attacks.

6.     OSCE Parliamentary Assembly recognized the Russian Federation as a state sponsor of terrorism and Wagner as a terrorist organization.

Ukraine Summer Offensive Summary

Snapshot

Evidence that Ukraine may be trying to attrit Russian forces across a long front and many combat zones emerged with Ukrainian offensive moves in five theatres of the country’s south and east. The hottest fighting is at Bakhmut as Ukraine pushes flanks. Meanwhile, there were explosions and fires at three locations in Russia.

General Developments

Evidence that Ukraine may be trying to attrit Russian forces across a long front and many combat zones emerged with Ukrainian offensive moves in five theatres of the country’s south and east. The hottest fighting is at Bakhmut as Ukraine pushes flanks. Meanwhile, there were explosions and fires at three locations in Russia.

Operational Aspects in Luhansk, Avdiivka, Marinka, Kherson, Russia and other areas

Several explosions occurred in the Russian-occupied city of Makiivka, in Donetsk region, according to local Telegram channels. Pro-Russian sources said they were caused by Ukrainian HIMARS.

Russian forces continue to focus their main efforts on the Lyman (northern Donetsk region), Avdiivka and Marinka fronts (central Donetsk region), and heavy fighting continues, according to Ukraine’s General Staff report. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed there were Ukrainian ground attacks in the Lyman direction.

Pro-Russian sources said Russian assaults at Avdiivka and Marinka were “without success.” 

In Sumy region, according to the General Staff, Russian forces “made unsuccessful attempts to penetrate a subversion and reconnaissance group through the state border of Ukraine, suffered losses and retreated.”

In Kharkiv region, Russian forces conducted offensive operations north of Novoselivske, according to the General Staff. 

Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on July 4, according to ISW.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and south of Kreminna, according to ISW, while pro-Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks there.

A thermal power plant has caught fire in the city of Veliky Novgorod in Russia, according to Russian state-operated ‘media outlet’ RIA Novosti.

Russian Telegram channels said that air defense systems activated over Belgorod, Russia. Pro-Russian sources reported combat near the Belgorod border area. 

Operational Aspects in Zone A. TO518 / Mokri Yaly River Axis - boundary of the Zaporizhzhzhia and Donetsk regions

Ukrainian southern forces spokesperson Valery Shershen stated that Ukrainian forces advanced up to two kilometers in the western Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia regions border area.

A prominent pro-Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces “had entered” Pryyutne, 15 kilometers southwest of Velyka Novosilka, in western Donetsk region.

Operational Aspects in Zone B. Western Zaporizhzhia

Geolocated footage confirms that Ukrainian forces made additional advances south of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhzhia region, according to ISW.

Pro-Russian sources said Ukrainian attacks on Robotyne continued.

Operational Aspects in Zone C. Bakhmut

Ukrainian soldiers continued to carry out offensive operations south and north of the city of Bakhmut, “entrenching at the achieved boundaries,” according to the General Staff.

For more details on the Bakhmut battle, click here for the report by Kyiv Post’s military expert Stefan Korshak.

Ukrainian milbloggers contended that Ukrainian forces are pushing to encircle Bakhmut from its flanks. They asserted that “the whole southern Bakhmut’s flank relies on just two powerful fortifications: one north of Klishchiivka and one west of Klishchiivka. The fact that Ukrainians have advanced by 1.5 kilometers means that one of these two fortifications has fallen.”

President Zelensky’s Message