Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Warns of Russia Gathering 100,000 Soldiers, Potential Summer Offensive

Russia is amassing a formidable troop presence exceeding 100,000 soldiers, indicating a possible new summer offensive, Ground Forces’ Commander Oleksandr Pavlyuk said on Ukrainian television Friday, March 22.

“The Russian plans are completely unknown to us. We only know the data that they are creating groups – more than 100,000,” Pavlyuk said.

“It will not necessarily be an offensive,” he said, indicating that Russia might be replenishing units.

“But there is a possibility that by the beginning of the summer, they may have certain forces to conduct appropriate offensive operations in one of the directions,” he said.

Pavlyuk said that the forecasts are challenging but that Ukraine is preparing for the increase.

“We are preparing for various developments in the situation,” he said.

The commander said that Ukraine currently lacks air superiority, enabling Russian forces to conduct potent airstrikes on Ukrainian defensive positions and border regions.

He highlighted the dire circumstances in the Sumy region, where Russian forces persist in “terrorizing” the local populace through continuous bombings.

Meanwhile, Russia admitted two years into its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Friday that it was “in a state of war,” as it launched a massive wave of missile and drone attacks on its neighbor's territory.

The assault, involving nearly 90 missiles and over 60 kamikaze drones, targeted energy facilities. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “Yes, it started as a special military operation, but...for us it already became a war.”

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UK Estimates Russian War Casualties at 450,000

The figure is only slightly lower than Kyiv’s official estimates, where the UK Minister of Armed Forces said there were “tens of thousands more have deserted” not included in the estimation.

Meanwhile, though it's generally agreed that replacements are needed for fallen soldiers and to provide respite for those engaged since the beginning of Russia's invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, Kyiv faces a challenging task in revising its conscription law.

Complicating matters are emerging scandals exposing instances of mobilization centers forcibly conscripting Ukrainian men from the streets.

Despite nearly a million individuals joining the military—primarily as volunteers—during the initial months of the full-scale invasion, reports suggest tens of thousands have perished, with a greater number sustaining injuries.

Ukraine’s situation is also highly unusual in that its fighters, currently battling for national independence, have an average age of 43, with those under 27 so far exempted from conscription.