North Korea is reportedly tripling its troop deployment to aid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials on Tuesday.
The assessment in part mirrors recent reports by South Korea, which said Pyongyang could send more troops to Russia as early as July or August.
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CNN, citing an intelligence assessment from unnamed Ukrainian officials, said Pyongyang is set to reinforce the troops by sending another 25,000 to 30,000 to aid the 11,000 deployed since late last year, of which around 4,000 have been killed based on Western assessments.
North Korea reportedly sent an additional 3,000 troops this year to replace the dead and wounded.
Ukraine asserts that Moscow has the equipment, weapons and ammunition to help integrate North Korean troops into the Russian structure, where the fresh troops are expected to bolster Moscow’s forces in occupied Ukraine, “including during the large-scale offensive operations,” according to a Ukrainian assessment seen by CNN.
Recovered documents from killed and captured North Korean troops aiding Moscow forces in Kursk confirmed that they were issued fake Russian identity documents to conceal their involvement in Moscow’s invasion.
However, accounts from a captured North Korean soldier said the two armies act largely independently of one another, with coordination done at a high level between generals at headquarters.
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CNN, in its recent report, also cited circumstantial evidence of North Korea and Russia expanding means of transportation near the border between the two.
Citing satellite imagery from the Open Source Centre, a UK-based non-profit specializing in open-source defense intelligence, CNN said the same type of vessels used to transport troops last year have been seen docked at the Dunai port near Nakhodka in Russia Far East as of May 18, 95 kilometers (59 miles) southwest of a base with a confirmed Pyongyang troop sighting in October 2024.
Cargo planes have also been spotted at North Korea’s Sunan airport on June 4. CNN asserts that while the purpose of the plane and ship presence remains unclear, their movement pattern mirrors troop deployments seen last year.
“Satellite imagery shows a Russian [troop transport] arriving at Dunai in May, and activity at Sunan airport in May and June,” Joe Byrne, senior analyst at the Open Source Centre, told CNN.
“This appears to indicate the routes previously used to move DPRK troops are active and could be used in any large-scale future transfer of personnel,” he added, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).
Jenny Town, senior fellow and director of the Korean program at the Stimson Center, told CNN that the troop numbers are likely lower than the Ukrainian estimate, and there will be fewer elite troops compared to those deployed last year.
The assessment came amid publicly growing ties between Pyongyang and Moscow, with North Korean autocrat Kim Jong Un recently holding a ceremony to honor the troops who died fighting alongside Russia.
Kim officially acknowledged sending troops to aid Russia in April this year.
Pyongyang and Moscow signed a military pact in 2024 that came into force later that year, wherein it obligates both states to provide military assistance “without delay” in the case of an attack on the other, and to jointly oppose Western sanctions.
While there is evidence that Pyongyang has provided Moscow with troops, builders and weapons – including missiles used in attacks on Kyiv – what Pyongyang receives in return is less certain.
Speculations believe that Pyongyang receives resources and military technologies – including nuclear know-how – in return, but these hypotheses have not been confirmed.
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