Estonia said Russia conducted an unannounced live-fire exercise over Lake Peipus on July 9 near its border.

Latvian outlet Delfi, citing Estonian media Postimees, said the incident was likely an exercise to counter naval drones.

“The firing was conducted at a moving target on the water. Perhaps weather conditions prevented the exercise from being conducted in the Gulf of Finland, or for some other reason, it took place on Lake Peipus,” Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur was quoted as saying.

“Or perhaps units beyond Piirissaar Island were also assigned this task. The Russian Border Service has never done anything like this before,” he added.

The lake is shared by both Estonia and Russia, located 51 kilometers (32 miles) from the Estonian city of Narva, which is largely Russian-speaking and the subject of border disputes between Tallinn and Moscow over a potential Russian invasion.

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On Aug. 24, 2025, a drone flew over the lake twice before falling into its waters.

Pevkur said the latest incident was “not an ordinary event.”

“This is certainly not an ordinary event. Russia has not conducted any exercises involving the use of weapons on Lake Peipus. In this sense, this is something new,” Pevkur added.

Interior Minister Igor Taro called the incident a provocation.

“We have very clear rules of conduct in the border zone: What is and isn’t allowed. People in military uniform don’t usually approach the border just to conduct some kind of exercises out of the blue,” Taro said.

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Pevkur framed it as a “confusion” resulting from the ongoing fuel crisis in Russia.

“It seems they’re facing a variety of problems. We have information that the fuel crisis has even reached the Russian border guards: They’re already mowing the grass around the border posts with scythes,” Pevkur said.

“There seems to be a slight sense of confusion among the security forces,” he added.

Pevkur also refused to disclose the Russian agency involved in the exercise.

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While Russia has ramped up defenses against intensified Ukrainian drone strikes in recent months, NATO members have also warned of potential Russian provocations in the Baltics.

In April, the Swedish military’s Chief of Defense, Gen. Michael Claesson said Moscow could carry out a limited maritime operation “at any time” on one of the thousand Baltic islands to probe NATO’s defenses.

In June, The Guardian, citing intelligence and political sources from NATO’s eastern flank, reported that officials believe the Kremlin could seek to test NATO’s cohesion through hybrid operations via the Baltics or Poland – an assessment largely in line with a recent warning from the US.

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