Ukraine Counteroffensive Update for Oct. 4 (Europe Edition): ‘US Aid Will Last a Couple of Months'

Overview:

·      US assures Ukraine that opposition to aid limited to minor actors, will be revisited

·      AFU intercepts 29 drones and a missile, but strike hits target in Dnipropetrovsk region

·      President meets with soldiers in Kharkiv 

·      AP fact-checks Russian propaganda footage of Ukrainian troops’ surrender

·      Euro-bankers hoping to increase post-war reconstruction fund to $3.1B

·      Russian Minister of Defense snubs Teplinsky-led units on conference call

Despite US budget compromise, Ukraine aid can last “a bit longer”

AFP quoted a US Department of Defense spokesperson Tuesday as saying that the United States can continue sending military aid for a “little bit longer” as some of the money has already been approved, but that Congress will have to act to be sure the supply is not interrupted going into 2024.  

"You're talking perhaps a couple of months or so, roughly," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told a briefing.

A hard-right fringe element in the House of Representatives managed to keep the bulk of military aid to Ukraine out of play as Washington ultimately found a compromise over the 2024 Fiscal Year budget [which runs from Oct. 1, 2023, to Sept. 30, 2024] to avoid a government shutdown. However, a bipartisan group in the Senate issued a joint statement vowing to revisit the issue in the coming weeks.

Other Topics of Interest

Russia Launches New Kharkiv Offensive to Establish ‘Security Zone,’ Says Putin

Russian leader Vladimir Putin said Ukraine is to blame for the renewed Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region since Moscow’s goal was to stop cross-border shelling.

“We have enough funding to meet Ukraine’s battlefield needs for just a little bit longer, but we need Congress to act to ensure there is no disruption in our support,” Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told journalists.

“We do feel confident that we will have bipartisan support to continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes,” AFP quoted Singh as saying.

“It is just a small minority of folks in the House that are expressing their opposition,” she said, noting the government can still draw upon $5.4 billion in equipment for Ukraine from US military inventory in the interim.

In another dramatic turn of events, the US House of Representatives witnessed a historic moment last night as its Republican Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, was removed from his position.

Zelensky visits Kharkiv region

President Volodymyr Zelensky spent the day with officials in the Kharkiv region on Tuesday, which has suffered numerous airstrikes in the past month. Meeting with military brass and civilian leaders, Zelensky discussed air defense systems, energy supply, de-mining efforts and social issues on Tuesday, the president’s staff posted on social media.

“It is extremely important that Kharkiv, despite everything, does not just hold on, but helps keep our entire east strong,” he wrote. “A proud and bright city that will always be a city of strength for Ukraine and the whole of Europe.

Shahed drones and Iskander missiles target southern regions, striking factory

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) stated on Tuesday that they had intercepted 29 of 31 Shahed drones and one Iskander-M cruise missile targeting the Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, while the Russian Ministry of Defense said that the airstrikes had hit a factory in Pavlohrad, in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

Mykola Lukashuk, the head of the Dnipropetrovsk regional council, posted on Telegram, “Unfortunately, hits occurred on the premises of territory of a plant in Pavlohrad. Two production buildings were affected.”

The General Staff said the airstrikes were launched from Cape Chauda (Mys Chauda) along the southern coast of occupied Crimea.

Viral photo of Ukrainians surrendering turns out to be archive footage distributed by Moscow

The AP pointed out on Tuesday that a photo widely shared on the Internet in recent weeks of soldiers surrendering to Russian troops, suggesting that Ukraine was losing its counteroffensive, was in fact a year-old image recycled by boosters of the invasion.

The AP noted: The photo is more than a year old and was distributed by Russia. News reports at the time said it showed Ukrainian soldiers surrendering during the fierce battle in the coastal city of Mariupol.

European bankers propose to double Ukraine reconstruction fund

Ahead of a meeting with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Morocco next week, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is considering doubling its funds to rebuild Ukraine in the post-war years, AFP reported Tuesday. This would bring the fund to at least 3 billion euros ($3.1 billion) per year, its president Odile Renaud-Basso told AFP.

The bank was founded just after the fall of the Soviet Union in order to help Communist-bloc countries convert to free-market economies.

Shoigu lauds hand-picked Russian units, snubs the grunts on some of the toughest lines

On a conference call with soldiers in Ukraine, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu congratulated a group of troops concentrated in the western parts of the Zaporizhzhia region, while conspicuously ignoring units commanded by officers with dubious loyalty to President Vladimir Putin, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) pointed out Tuesday.

Shoigu highlighted the efforts of the Russian 70th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment, the 56th Air Assault (VDV) Regiment, the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet), and others during a Russian military command online meeting on Tuesday.

He did not, however, waste any breath on “other formations that are routinely credited for maintaining the Robotyne-Verbove line such as the 108th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) or the 247th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division),” the ISW noted.

Shoigu reportedly had no praise for the worn-out airborne regiments that Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky had helped to avoid resuming counterattacks in the Bakhmut area.

Teplinsky is seen as lacking loyalty to the Ministry of Defense, while the units lauded by Shoigu in the meeting largely had been unsuccessful in their recent attacks against Ukrainian positions.

Watch hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers on the march

A video posted to "X" (formerly Twitter) on Tuesday reportedly shows hundreds of soldiers of the 118th Mechanized Brigade marching across a field, serving as a reminder that not all troop movements in this war are handled with armored vehicles or aircraft.

Oftentimes it’s just a long slog on foot.