Ukraine Counteroffensive Update for Oct 10 (Europe Edition): ‘How Far Can Such Evil Go?’

Overview:

• NATO Parliament calls for more long-range missiles and aircraft for Ukraine
• Zelensky says Moscow has a lot to gain from war in Israel
• AFU units marginally advance south of Bakhmut, capture a commander
• Russian troops innovate tactical maneuvers in Zaporizhzhia region
• Ukrainian boats conduct recon missions by Antonivsky Bridge
• No significant gains or losses reported in Kharkiv and Luhansk regions

NATO assembly delivers resolution to “step up” support to Ukraine

Wrapping up its plenary session in Copenhagen, NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly on Monday resolved to “step up and speed up” its support for Ukraine, in the words of the president of NATO’s parliament, Polish lawmaker Michal Szczerba.

“NATO should have a clear vision on how the war in Ukraine must end and stand with Ukraine until Ukraine's victory is achieved,” the assembly’s resolution reads.

It called on member nations’ governments “to further increase their military, intelligence, financial, training and humanitarian support to Ukraine, including by accelerating deliveries of sufficient quantities of advanced weapons that Ukraine needs to protect itself and to restore territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders of 1991, including long-range missiles and multipurpose fighter aircraft, and to sustain this support for as long as it takes for Ukraine to prevail.”

President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the Alliance’s ruling body via video link. “A terrorist group is attacking Israel; a terrorist state is attacking Ukraine,” Zelensky said. “How far can such evil go? No further than we allow it to.”

In her speech to the assembly, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen added: “Brave Ukrainian men and women are fighting on the battlefield, they are the face of right against wrong, of good against evil. “This is not only a war against Ukraine but also on the ideas that our Alliance is built on: freedom, democracy and rule of law.” 

Other Topics of Interest

Estonia’s PM: NATO Troop Training in Ukraine Won't Trigger War With Russia

Kallas said that training Ukraine’s forces on their territory would not be escalatory, adding that “Russia’s propaganda is about being at war with NATO; they don’t need an excuse.”

Operations: Bakhmut area

Heavy rainfall and muddy conditions have slowed military movements on the fronts south of Bakhmut for both sides, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). According to Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash, however, the rain has meant fewer Russian planes and drones operating in the area, providing a window for his troops to advance. Units from the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) chalked up gains near Klishchiivka (5 km southwest of Bakhmut) and Andriivka (10 km southwest of Bakhmut) as well as in Verbove, across the regional border in Zaporizhzhia, according to the AFU General Staff.

A number of Russian military bloggers on the ground complained of worsened visibility, hindering drone operators. Opinions among milbloggers differ on the extent to which the mud has obstructed the movements of military vehicles.

The ISW also highlighted analysis from Ukrainian “Rubizh” Rapid Response Brigade Spokesperson Pavlo Storozhuk, who pointed out that “Russian forces have changed their tactics in the Bakhmut area and are increasingly using small groups of four to eight people to bypass Ukrainian forces instead of throwing large waves of infantry at Ukrainian positions.”

In other news, one Ukrainian brigade (the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade) reported making an important capture in the Donetsk region: the commander of the “Alga” volunteer battalion of Russia’s 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade.

Operations: Zaporizhzhia region

The ISW shared a report from a Ukrainian source that troops from the Russian 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade (35th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District) advanced several hundred meters in a contested no-man’s-land in Marfopil (6 km southeast of Hulyaipole)

The Telegram post made sure not to overstate the significance of the maneuvers as it was limited to a single battalion, but pointed out that it brought up the interesting question as to whether this was simply a tactical maneuver or represented “something greater.”

Operations: Kherson region

Russian military observers on the ground expressed concern on Monday about anticipated Ukrainian boat raids across the Dnipro River in the Kherson region.

One observer noted that several AFU boats conducted a “limited raid” late Sunday night/early Monday morning. The Russian milblogger suggested it was a reconnaissance mission near the Antonivka Bridge, but claimed that the raid was repelled by Russian units.

The bridge has seen intense fighting over the course of Russia’s full-scale invasion, with Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian positions there in July, and sustaining heavy damage in the summer of 2022, and partially collapsed in November of that year just as the Russians were fleeing advancing Ukrainian troops overtaking Kherson.

Operations: Kharkiv and Luhansk regions

Fighting continued throughout the region of Kharkiv on Monday, the ISW reported, with neither side making any confirmed advances. Russian and Ukrainian troops traded attacks and counter-attacks at several villages surrounding Kupyansk: Ivanivka (20 km southeast of Kupyansk) and Synkivka (8 km northeast of Kupyansk) especially.

Meanwhile, footage published Monday on Telegram purports to show elements of the 88th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps) operating near Berestove, on the border between the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

Zelensky issues a stark reminder that “world wars of the past” started with local conflicts

In his nightly address, President Zelensky proclaimed that “Russia is interested in triggering a war in the Middle East, so that a new source of pain and suffering could undermine world unity, increase discord and contradictions, and thus help Russia destroy freedom in Europe.”

Zelensky had just met with national intelligence officials to discuss the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, he said, and how it effects global perception of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He added a reminder that the “world wars of the past started with local aggressions...”

“We know how to counter this threat,” he said. “We are preparing appropriate steps. And most importantly, we are defending the need for maximum unity in the world.”

Watch a video recap of Monday’s action on the fronts

As they always do, the press officers of the AFU General Staff have assembled a stunning video montage of the combat action on the front lines. See their video digest of Day 593 (Oct 9, 2023) of the Russian full-scale invasion here: