A wave of Ukrainian long-range weapons widely reported to be around a dozen US-made ATACMS ballistic missiles pounded air bases and air defense installations across Crimea peninsula early Tuesday morning, in one of the beefiest Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) long-range attacks yet against the Kremlin-occupied territory.
Flights of unidentified weapons first started slamming into military installations across Crimea around 2 a.m., with explosions and air raid warnings widely reported near the cities of Simferopol and Sevastopol, and the towns of Gvardeyska, Evpatoria and Dzhankoi, news reports said.
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Four of those targets, the exception being Dzhankoi, were well outside the range of all weapons the AFU had been known to operate in the past, save recently delivered long-range versions of the US-made ATACMS missile.
Estimates of total missile counts used in the attacks ranged from 10-15 weapons, some carrying cluster munitions.
Changes and Adaptation Precipitated by War: Top Ukrainian Defense Official Talks to Kyiv Post-Part One
Isolated reports said shorter-range ATACMS struck targets nearer territory controlled by Kyiv’s forces, and that Ukrainian strike planners had launched attack drones along with the American missiles.
Ukrainian Air Force spokespersons had not responded to a Kyiv Post request for details about the strikes and type of weapon or weapons used in the Tuesday attacks, by the time this article was published.
Colonel Roman Svitun, a retired AFU officer and military analyst, told the Kyiv24 television news channel in a Tuesday interview that the early morning strikes are probably part of a Kyiv strategy to degrade Russian air defenses in Crimea and in the south Ukrainian mainland, with the long-term objective of opening the way for destructive missile and drone attacks against other military targets.
The Ukrainian strikes overnight were most likely follow-up attacks to ATACMS fired at Russian air defense installations near the mainland cities Genichesk and Mariupol earlier in the month, Svitun said.
“It certainly could have been ATACMS,” he said of the Tuesday strikes. “They have the capacity to hit anywhere.”
Official Russian sources confirmed the fact of multiple attacks by Ukrainian ballistic missiles, and some claimed all incoming weapons were shot down. Sergei Aksenov, the Kremlin-appointed head of the Crimea occupation administration, said of an attack near Simferopol that “after the ATACMS missiles were shot down they scattered cluster munitions,” and warned residents not to touch them.
The pro-Moscow military information platform Dva Mayora said ATACMS missiles were directed at targets near the Crimean cities Simferopol and Dzhankoi and “according to information coming in, our (Russian) defenders did an outstanding job.”
In the hours following the strikes, the heavy weight of traffic from social media in targeted towns and cities contradicted the Kremlin spin of successful intercepts and no damage to targets, reporting hits to anti-aircraft systems, Russian aircraft, command and control center, and military casualties. Accounts of cluster munitions successfully deployed and scattered over targets were common.
In Dzhankoi, the Ukrainsky Krym Telegram platform reported, a military airfield was hit with at least two weapons, killing and wounding service personnel assigned to the 4th Command Center of Air Defense Forces of the Russian Air Force, and damaging helicopters assigned to the unit.
The independent Russian news agency ASTRA reported a probable ATACMS hitting the Dzhankoi base wounded five service personnel, lit fires burning for at least 90 minutes and confirmed damage to the air defense control center. The weapons used in that strike were MGM-140 ATACMS missiles, the report said.
Multiple NATO air reconnaissance aircraft sweeps through airspace above the western Black Sea, including the first-time deployment of a US Navy MQ-4C Triton spy drone, took place in hours before the strikes. NATO and US officials have stated such flights collect general intelligence that is turned over to Kyiv, but not data on specific target locations.
One US maritime and signal intelligence platform, a US Navy Boeing P-8APoseidon turboprop four-engine was in the air patrolling above Romania’s south-eastern Danube delta at the time some of the Ukrainian weapons struck Crimean targets some 200 kilometers (124 miles) distant, the pro-Ukraine military news channel Krymsky Veter reported. Kyiv Post checks of open-source flight tracking data confirmed the claim.
The Pentagon has deployed Poseidon aircraft in daytime patrols to the area practically every day for more than a year. Poseidon sorties at night over the Danube Delta, such as the one taking place April 29-30, are practically unheard of, Kyiv Post research of air traffic data confirmed.
The AFU had prior to the Tuesday morning strikes seemed to launch ATACMS missiles sparingly, according to military sources, because of limited reserves. Were the April 30 strike to be confirmed as having been performed by ATACMS, it would be the most massive single ballistic missile strike carried out by Ukraine since Russia’s Feb. 2022 invasion.
Rated the most accurate ballistic missile deployed by either side in the Russo-Ukrainian War, the ATACMS has seen almost no use by AFU forces because the US government banned transfer of the missiles to Ukraine for more than two years for fears, White House spokesmen said, that giving Ukraine such a weapon might exacerbate Russo-US tensions.
According to US news reports, Washington reversed that position and transferred 10-20 short-range ATACMS missiles to Kyiv in October 2023, and then a second, similarly small batch of longer-range ATACMS in March. In the past, according to battle and news reports, the Ukrainians had launched a maximum two ATACMS at a time.
Some Beltway analysts have said US Congressional approval of military aid to Ukraine in 2024 has put as many as 100 more ATACMS into the Ukraine arms pipeline.
The last confirmed ATACMS employment by the AFU took place on April 25, and prior to that on April 17 with individual or twin missile launches against Russian air defense systems. The earlier of the two strikes struck an air base near Dzhankoi, according to Ukrainian air force spokesmen destroying or critically damaging four S-400 air defense launchers, three radar stations, an air defense equipment control point, and a Murom-M airspace surveillance system, a Ukraine military intelligence spokesperson told Kyiv Post.
This article cites the Russian mil-blogger Dva Majora as an example of a Kremlin-aligned source claiming today’s ATACMS attacks did no damage. Checks of Crimea social media, Ukrainian social media and Russian independent news reporting made clear such claims were false. Clearly some missiles hit, and damage was done.
This article cites the Telegram platform Krmsky Veter as claiming that a US Navy Poseidon reconnaissance plane operated in air space over the Danube delta overnight April 29-30. Checks of that claim on the open-source air traffic monitoring platforms FlightRadar and FlightAware found the claim to be accurate.
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Comments (17)
Can anyone tell me why Ukrainian seem to attack with drones AT NIGHT instead of during the day? Also wouldn't it be better to attack dining facilities when staff are packed together rather than hitting a plane or two? The planes do no good if they have no pilots or maintenance people.
One point in the article should be clarified. The Boeing P-8 Poseidon is a two jet engine aircraft derived from the civilian Boeing 737-800. Perhaps, the author mistook it for a Lockheed P-3 Orion or its EP-3E version, which are still operated by the US navy. However, the latter will be replaced by the P-8 Poseidon in 2025.
The USA has over 1,100 ATACMS missiles that need to be decommissioned because they are at the end of their shelf life. This will cost tens of millions of dollars to safely decommission then all whereas Ukraine will do it for FREE! Imagine the orc filth being on the receiving end of 1,100 ATACMS with a great many being the 300km range version. Think about that #ruzzianTerroristState bot and troll scum and choke on it.
*Слава нації.* 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 Смерть усім ворогам! 🇷🇺
Slavia Ukraine . 💛💙
The more ATACMS missiles Ukraine receives the better.
I'm thinking 500+ missiles to hit as many targets as possible, both in Crimea and in mainland southern Ukraine.
With that many missiles, Ukraine could take out a LOT of jets & helicopters on the ground, SAM systems, and EW systems.
This would make F-16s much more effective and survivable when they arrive in Ukraine, plus taking out EW systems would also put drones and GPS-guided weapons back in the game.
@URKRAINE SENDING ATACMS AND THERE'S NOT A DAMN THING RUSSIA CAN DO ABOUT IT,
Its great news isn't it MAGA troll 'jack'.
I'm a big fan of ATACMS and all forms of missiles being launched against russian. Ukraine will prevail. Especially if the few remaining mainstream republicans and Democrats unite to thwart the putinrump controlled MRGA minions in congress.
These (particularly JD Vance, MGT and putinrump) often start spewing putin propaganda minutes within its being first published. Putinrump being the biggest Putin asset of them all. Hopefully he will be in jail soon for his many crimes and treasonous activities.
That was just cruel how putinrump commanded the 71 MRGA House members (72 including MRGA Johnson) to stall Ukraine aid for 6 months.
Outrageous that if elected, putinrump also plans on throwing all NATO allies under putins tank tracks.
Write soon troll 'jack'. :-)
@S Foreskin, After the collapse of the USSR in 1991, approximately 40% of its land mass reverted back to becoming sovereign nations. None have any interest in supporting putin's dream of resurrecting the USSR.
So putin's military funding and empire rebuilding has way less resources than the USSR once had. Even the USSR went bankrupt.
Russia is now the most heavily sanctioned nation on earth. Its economy not diversified. Only 5 fragile despot lead nations out 195 global nations support putin's attempted theft of Ukraine. Other 'neutral' sanction busters are now being sanctioned....even China would rather not risk this. It won't even accept ruble payments now.
Russia's economy is contracting. It will soon not to be able to afford this war or maintain social services. Its military is too diminished now to conquer and thus steal from others. The allies won't allow it. Russia can't legally get the technology it would need to ramp up advanced weapons manufacture. It's space program is floundering. Only 220 of 9000 Satellites are Russian..they can only build 40 per year (compared with the USAs 3000). Putin is now drawing weapons from 50-70 year old soviet stock.
Russia's population is aged and shrinking; its youth and talent leaving. It can't get the technology to be maintain existing productivity with less people.
Yet you sell a rosy forecast for putin's regime?
ruSSia claims 20 of 12 ATACMS launched from Ukraine were shot down within 3 seconds of launch, and that the ruSSian missiles all safely returned to their launch sites to a hero's welcome.
Oh, it's going to be a bad year for Russia. Just look at how active the russian trolls have become since the latest ATACMS aid started flowing. Their urgency / fear is palpable, but there is frankly nothing their false claims / abusive words can do that will have any effect on continues ATACMS, Himars, Storm Shadow and Scalp supply....maybe the Taurus fittingly for May. "What orc air defence do?".
The ATMCMS not only have range to fully defend all Ukraine's temporarily infested territories, but it's the most accurate missile in play in this war. With superior western reconnaissance / intelligence and missile targeting the impact against russia will be significant. Unlike russia which wastes its best missiles targeting civilians, Ukraine will be using these very strategically to take out the most problematic and expensive russian war assets. In fear Russia logistical supply depots will need to withdraw back inside of russian territory, thus the orc supply chains become stretched to make resupply even worse than its already been.
Thanks to Ukraine's orc hunting prowess, and it's now greatly improved allied weapons support, russia has to pull its oppressive assets from other potential hotspots they've colonized. Those occupied ethnic regions now have a much better chance of regaining there freedom. Tatars, Bashkir, Chuvashs, Chechens, Kazakhs, Azerbaijani, Nenets, the formerly conquered Chinese in Russia's Far East.
Yep...a lot of bad karma coming Russias way.
@John, Infested! Yes, the most appropriate term! And Yes, desperation of the orc trolls is ramping up but will do nothing to thwart the over due sanitizing of Ukraine!
If you work in a Russia airbase you should look for a new job.
Apr 30 2024: The United States has no evidence to suggest that the Russian military has managed to shoot down U.S.-made ATACMS ballistic missiles fired by Ukraine, White House National Security spokesman John Kirby said on April 30. https://english.nv.ua/nation/white-house-refutes-russian-claims-of-downing-atacms-missiles-50414603.html
Apr 29 2024: Colby Badhwar, an independent defense analyst, said in a post on X that the US could give Ukraine 200 of the long-range ATACMS and possibly more if the roughly 1,140 "expired" missiles in U.S. stocks are still usable. https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-crimea-atacms/32925212.html
Apr 29 2024 Gen Hodges [ret] said: "The first big step toward the liberation of Crimea is making it untenable. And long-range, precision strike capability will give Ukraine that opportunity... You just have to make sure that the Russians don't have fuel, ammunition, and food." https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-crimea-atacms/32925212.html
P-8 is a two engine jet, not a 4 engine turbo-prop (that would be an older P-3)
This reminds me of a movie lines from the movie Billy Jack where Billy Jack is facing off the corrupt boss of the small town by the nearby Native American reservation.
Actually I found the whole "conversation" between Billy Jack and "Posner complete with descriptions of the physical activity that ensues:
Mr. Posner: You really think those Green Beret Karate tricks are gonna help you against all these boys?
Billy Jack: Well, it doesn't look to me like I really have any choice now, does it?
Mr. Posner: [laughing] That's right, you don't.
Billy Jack: You know what I think I'm gonna do then? Just for the hell of it?
Mr. Posner: Tell me.
Billy Jack: I'm gonna take this right foot, and I'm gonna whop you on that side of your face...
[points to Posner's right cheek]
Billy Jack: ...and you wanna know something? There's not a damn thing you're gonna be able to do about it.
Mr. Posner: Really?
Billy Jack: Really.
[kicks Posner's right cheek, sending him to the ground]"
Here's a youtube link of the movie clip:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVX-voqWuwY&t=8s
The movie Billy Jack reflects the present reality in Ukraine.
Ukraine is womping Russia upside of the right cheek and there's not a damn think Russia can do about it.
Glorious.
Slava Ukraini!
And I am purportedly a MAGA troll.
Just fuck off John the loon from Canada you shameless fucking idiot.
Go home orcs. 🇺🇦💪
Do you have advanced anti missiles guns that can detect and shoot missikes to give to Ukraine ? The Netherlands ( previously called Holland ) has systems like this )...
Does the west have precise glide bombs to give to the defenders in Ukraine as these are cheaper and easier to produce than these precise tactical precision missiles ?
Hope Ukraine can counter balance the Russian regime to achieve peace later on saving lives in Russia and all of Europe ...May a fair settlement be achieved ...
@Hope, Hope, are you not aware of the Patriot missile defense system? They cost one billion dollars per battery consisting of radar trucks, target acquisition and dissemination of firing orders to a battery of some eight missile trucks. Joe BRIBEn could have lent a hundred of such batteries of these systems. But he is a feckless fool who has allowed the destruction of Ukrainian civil society. If you have any hope you should hope President-elect Trump returns to the White House. He will defeat Putrid witheconomic warfare.
@Hope, Yes, NATO has Patriot and similar systems that are highly effective. It's not clear why the US has not shipped more systems to Ukraine.
The glide bombs in the West are best launched from F-16s. Expect to see them once the platform arrives this summer. However, before the F-16s are delivered, Ukraine needs anti-missile systems at all the airbases from which the planes will operate.
The problem with glide bombs is they need to be dropped well within range of Russian aircraft. A robust anti-missile shield will likely be needed before we see many glide bombs. In my mind, they will be useful once Ukraine starts taking back significant territory. And that won't happen until Ukraine is able to neutralize the air advantage Russia currently holds.
The only fair settlement is for Putin to go home. He won't. And as long as he occupies any Ukrainian territory, he (or his successor) is a threat to attack in the future.