Ukraine Breaking News Today Live on 12-12-2024

Despite increases in defense budgets, NATO countries still do not match Moscow’s arms production

NATO chief Mark Rutte issued a stark warning Thursday to “turbo-charge” defense spending, saying European nations were not prepared for the threat of future war with Russia.

“We are not ready for what is coming our way in four to five years,” Rutte said in a keynote address in Brussels, his first major speech since taking office as NATO secretary-general in October.

Trump says he won’t ‘abandon’ Ukraine, but it’s unclear how his ‘peace through strength’ plan could end the war – and potentially compromise Ukraine’s sovereignty in the process.

As US President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office next month, his approach to the ongoing war in Ukraine has become a focal point of international concern.

The president-elect's recent statements and proposed strategies have sparked debate about the future of US support for Ukraine and the potential for a swift resolution to the war.

In Berlin, seven European foreign policy chiefs affirmed support for Ukrainian EU accession

Ukraine’s path to eventual NATO membership is “irreversible,” seven European foreign policy chiefs said at a meeting in Berlin on Thursday.

“We will continue to support Ukraine on its irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership,” said the foreign ministers of Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain, and the EU’s foreign policy chief.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed the idea of stationing foreign troops in Ukraine in case of a ceasefire

The deployment of European troops in Ukraine could help guarantee a future deal aimed at securing peace in the nearly three-year war with Russia, a senior Kyiv official said on Thursday.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed the idea of stationing foreign troops in Ukraine in case of a ceasefire during talks on Thursday, Tusk said, although he cautioned Warsaw was not currently planning such a move.

Scholz said that the mid-November conversation was “frustrating” but that it was necessary in Germany’s ongoing support for Ukraine.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is ready to keep communication lines open with Russian President Vladimir Putin despite acknowledging the lack of progress from their last phone call, according to an Aachener Zeitung report.

During RTL’s year-end review, Scholz said that his mid-November conversation was “frustrating” but that it was necessary in Germany’s ongoing support for Ukraine.

Trump said he would use Washington’s backing as leverage to bring the war to a close

President-elect Donald Trump said in an interview published Thursday that he disagrees “very vehemently” with Ukraine firing US-supplied missiles deep into Russia.

But Trump insisted he would not abandon Ukraine as US support for Kyiv would be key leverage in efforts to bring the war to a close.    

Patel said that if Zelensky continues seeking more financial support, including from the US Congress, he must be more cautious about the tone of his public statements.

Donald Trump’s nominee for Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Kash Patel, expressed concerns over US financial aid to Ukraine during a recent episode of the Kash’s Corner podcast, calling for an investigation into how the funds have been used.

“I’ve asked this Congress to investigate where this money has gone. The American people are owed that answer because it's our money, our tax,” Patel said.

Digging deeper, Pfarrer pinpoints the very day that Assad’s regime was doomed to collapse, as its military deserted en masse, and what that might portend for Russia’s own army.

Multiple Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs) issued by Russia, alongside US warnings, indicate that Moscow might soon conduct a “test launch” of its new “Oreshnik” missile again.

Moscow could launch its “Oreshnik” intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) on Friday morning, potentially against Ukraine, based on multiple Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs) issued by Russian authorities in recent days.

On Tuesday, Dec. 10, Russia issued a NOTAM numbered N2201/24, valid between 8 a.m. and noon coordinated universal time (UTC) on Friday, Dec. 13, over the same “Kapustin Yar” test site used for its last “Oreshnik” strike against Ukraine’s Dnipro on Nov. 21.

Inflation increased above the central bank’s maximum forecast, forcing monetary governors to lower the heat by raising the key rate by half a percent– but it should decelerate in 2025.

Ukraine’s central bank, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), increased the key policy rate from 13% to 13.5% to tame inflation that rose above its forecast. The higher key rate should lower inflation expectations and sustain the will of Ukrainians to keep savings in the national currency rather than purchasing dollars. 

The National Bank announced its decision on Thursday. 

In Moscow, Ukrainian military intelligence has reportedly assassinated Mikhail Shatsky, a Russian missile designer linked to cruise missile attacks on Ukrainian civilians.

Mikhail Shatsky, deputy chief designer and head of software for Russia’s Mars defense contractor, was shot dead in a Moscow park.

Shatsky was known for modernizing the Kh-59 cruise missiles to the Kh-69 level, introducing new UAVs, and is considered responsible for the deaths of thousands of innocent Ukrainians.

The two are set to discuss support for Ukraine ahead of Poland’s upcoming six-month rotating EU Council presidency and the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump in January.

French President Emmanuel Macron is set to discuss future security for Ukraine with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw on Thursday.

Elysée said Macron would discuss with Tusk European support for Ukraine “in a new transatlantic context, as well as with a view to the Polish Presidency of the Council of the EU in the first half of 2025,” as per an RFI report.

Ukrainian partisans reported a Russian military convoy carrying tanks and armored vehicles moving north through Crimea toward Zaporizhzhia probably intending to intensify offensive operations.

The Ukrainian Atesh partisan movement has reported tracking a column of Russian military vehicles moving north through Crimea. According to a post on its Telegram channel on Thursday, Dec 12, the column was likely heading toward the occupied Zaporizhzhia region, where Moscow is preparing to intensify its offensive operations.

“The column included a significant number of armored vehicles, including tanks, BMPs, and APCs, as well as military tractors and trucks,” the partisans wrote.

A former Deputy Chief of Ukraine’s General Staff says the fighters can destroy cruise missiles and Shahed drones but don’t have weapons capable of ability to taking on long-range Russian targets.

Retired Lt. Gen. Ihor Romanenko, former Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ General Staff said during an interview on Ukrainian Radio that currently Ukraine’s F-16 fighter aircraft are limited to air defense tasks but require modern long-range weapons if they are to fully exploit their potential against Russian ground and air forces.

The capability of the F-16 as an air defense interceptor was amply displayed on the night of Nov. 29, 2024, when they reportedly took down seven Russian cruise missiles targeted against civilian infrastructure

Demand for UAH bonds remains high. Bond Market Insight for Dec. 11

Once more, the primary auction received huge demand with oversubscription for all offered bonds. Therefore, the MoF borrowed significant funds from each auction for the third month.

Military bonds saw huge demand for two months, but without significant movement in interest rates, except for refreshing offerings, as last week. Therefore, interest rates for all three offered military bonds did not see important movements, while for reserve notes, interest rates continued to fall.

The charitable foundation has financed the modernization of all of Ukraine’s Soviet-era 9K33 Osa wheeled surface-to-air missile systems (SAMs) at a cost of only $340,000.

Ukraine’s “Come Back Alive” Foundation reported on Wednesday that it had successfully completed project Hornet project aimed at boosting the country’s air defense capabilities by modernizing its Soviet-era 9K33 Osa (NATO: SA-8 Gecko) systems at a cost of more than Hr.14 million ($340,000).

The announcement said, “All the anti-aircraft missile regiments of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that are in service with the Osa SAM have received the upgrades,” adding that they will now be more effective in shooting down drones, helicopters, airplanes, and missiles.

Ending the war with Russia ASAP, yes, but prudence is needed, Ukrainian president stresses.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump wants to end this war faster, but it must be done in such a way that it is impossible to start it again, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"Of course, when the president [U.S. President-elect Trump] talks about 24 hours… it is not a question of him having to decide this [to end the war] in 24 hours. It is very difficult. But he says, I understand his words, that he wants to do it quickly. And it seems to me that it is important that it be done faster, because we are losing people every day," Zelensky said in an interview for CBN, published on Wednesday.

Pentagon said on Wednesday that Russia could strike Ukraine again with its experimental “Oreshnik” medium-range ballistic missile in another “message to the West.”

Russia has vowed to respond to a recent Ukrainian strike on a southern airfield using US-supplied ATACMS missiles, the Kremlin announced on Thursday, Dec. 12.

“A response will follow when and in a manner deemed appropriate. It will definitely happen,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

EU lawmakers recently demanded more targeted sanctions against Russia’s shadow fleet.

European Union ambassadors have agreed a 15th package of sanctions on Russia over its war against Ukraine, targeting its shadow tanker fleet and Chinese firms making drones for Moscow, diplomats said.

The Hungarian presidency said on X that the sanctions would target vessels from third countries supporting Russia's war in Ukraine and add more individuals and entities to the sanctions list.

The world in focus, as seen by a Canadian leading global affairs analyst, writer and speaker, in his review of international media.

Russian naval vessels appear to have temporarily left their main port in Syria, satellite images reviewed by BBC Verify show, amid continuing uncertainty about Moscow's military future in the country after the fall of its ally, Bashar al-Assad. Images taken by Maxar on 10 December show some ships have left Tartous naval base since Sunday and are currently sitting offshore in the Mediterranean Sea. Meanwhile, other photos taken on the same day show activity continuing at Russia's main airbase in Syria, Hmeimim, with jets clearly visible on the tarmac. On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow would enter talks with incoming authorities about Russia's future military presence. “Everything possible is now being done to get in touch with those involved in ensuring security and, of course, our military is also taking all the necessary precautions," he told reporters in Moscow - BBC

France says Israel needs to remove its military presence from the Golan Heights. Over the past few days, we've been reporting how Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed his troops to protect the country’s border with Syria by stationing themselves in a buffer zone in the area. "Any military deployment in the separation zone between Israel and Syria is a violation of the disengagement agreement of 1974," a French foreign ministry spokesman says in a statement today. “France calls on Israel to withdraw from the zone and to respect Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity." Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock took a similar stance on achieving a peaceful transition in Syria, noting: “[Israel] must not jeopardise the process with their actions.” - BBC

Latest from the British Defence Intelligence.

• The overall tempo of maritime operations in the Black Sea remains low. Ukraine continues to be successful in restricting Russian maritime operations to the eastern Black Sea. The Russian Federation Navy's (RFN) perception of the threat of attack from Ukraine is evident through their frequent dispersal training and anti-Uncrewed Surface Vessel/Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle exercises in and around Novorossiysk. Ukraine continues to undermine the credibility of the Russian Black Sea Fleet by seeking to target naval infrastructure and vessels in the Black Sea.
• The massed missile attack on 28 November 2024targeting Critical National Infrastructure in several regions of Ukraine included launches from FN vessels operating in the Black Sea. The Ukrainian Air Force reported 28 land-attack cruise missiles were fired, and that their air-defence system was able to intercept a high percentage of incoming weapon systems fired from both the RFN and Russian Long Range Aviation.

The explosion damaged the roof and shattered windows of the barracks of a special police regiment while falling debris sparked a fire that was quickly extinguished.

Grozny, the capital of the Chechen Republic, was targeted by a drone attack early in the morning on Thursday, Dec. 12, according to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. The drone was intercepted over the barracks of a special police regiment, he stated on Telegram.

"No one was seriously injured. Four guards sustained minor injuries. The on-duty personnel were in protected rooms at the time," Kadyrov wrote, attributing the attack to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

German trade with Ukraine had grown from some eight billion euros ($8.4 billion) in 2021 to almost 10 billion euros in 2023, Scholz said.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Wednesday urged businesses to invest in war-torn Ukraine and stressed a commitment to smooth Kyiv's path to European Union accession.

"If you invest in Ukraine today and in the coming years, you are investing in a future EU member," Scholz said in a speech at a German-Ukrainian business forum in Berlin.

The reports aren’t confirmed. NATO has stated repeatedly that although it supports Ukraine it has no intention of entering a shooting war with Russia.

A leading Russian milblogger claimed Ukrainian Air Force F-16s are flying combat sorties from a NATO air base in Poland, an allegation that was repeated in both Russian and Ukrainian media but not independently confirmed.

The fairly obscure pro-Moscow milblogger Globalistika identified the Polish Air Force Mińsk Mazowiecki Air Base east of Warsaw as the home base for at least 16 Ukrainian Air Force F-16 fighter aircraft, of which seven currently are repainted with Ukrainian colors and are on combat status.

Serhii Marchenko said Ukraine has enough resources to last until mid-2025, while stressing the importance of building trust and negotiating with the new US administration.

Ukraine will have sufficient funds and weaponry to hold out at least until mid-2025, Ukraine's Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko said in an interview with El Pais, when asked what would happen if the US stopped providing aid to Kyiv.

Marchenko said that the cessation of US aid would be a serious challenge for the country and that Kyiv needs to develop a plan for cooperation with the new US administration.

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian forces continue to make tactical gains south of Pokrovsk as they attack into Ukrainian weak points and attempt to conduct a turning maneuver to directly assault Pokrovsk from the south.
• US intelligence had warned that Russia may fire a second "Oreshnik" ballistic missile at Ukraine in the near future, likely in a continued effort to dissuade the West from providing further military assistance to Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces struck an oil depot in Bryansk Oblast and an aircraft repair plant in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast on the night of December 10 to 11.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and in the Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar directions.
• The Kremlin continues to leverage its "Time of Heroes" program to integrate Russian veterans of the war in Ukraine into leadership positions within Russian regional administrations.