Ukraine Breaking News Today Live on 04-01-2025

Refinancing of domestic debt below 100% in 1Q25, National Bank of Ukraine increased interventions, higher foreign aid assumptions. Weekly Insight for March 31.

Bonds: Refinancing of domestic debt below 100% in 1Q25

Last week, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) raised UAH15bn, but total domestic debt rollover was below 100% in 1Q25.

At last week’s primary auction, the MoF offered two UAH military bills and one USD-denominated paper. Interest rates in bids for UAH bonds were not higher than the cut-off level of the previous auction, so the MoF accepted them without changes in yields, while rejecting only one bid.

Yes, no, maybe – Kyiv and Moscow have apparently agreed but with different terms and conditions and having no official implementation mechanism in place.

Ukraine and Russia have technically agreed to implement a ceasefire against each other’s energy infrastructure, though in practice, there’s been no common agreement between the two.

The two also ostensibly agreed to implement a ceasefire on the Black Sea, but Moscow later demanded additional conditions – such as the lifting of specific sanctions – that have not been agreed upon, as outlined in an earlier Kyiv Post analysis.

Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said a fundamentally changed security environment in Europe prompted the decision by Finland – a NATO member bordering Russia – to pull out of the 1997 Ottawa Treaty.

Finland’s prime minister said Tuesday the country plans to withdraw from the international treaty banning anti-personnel mines, the latest signatory moving to ditch the ban over threats from Russia.

Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said a fundamentally changed security environment in Europe prompted the decision by Finland – a NATO member bordering Russia – to pull out of the 1997 Ottawa Treaty.

The frontline region in southern Ukraine has been subjected to constant Russian strikes due to its proximity to Russian forces.

Officials have reduced the curfew hours in the Kherson region in southern Ukraine from 8 p.m. to 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. to 5 a.m.

Roman Mrochko, head of the Kherson City Military Administration, confirmed the 2-hour curfew increase is effective starting Tuesday, April 1, in a social media announcement.

Russia took nearly 150 square kilometers (58 square miles) less in March than in February.

Russia advanced 240 square kilometers (93 square miles) into Ukrainian territory in March, marking a slowdown for four months in a row, according to AFP’s analysis of data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Moscow’s advances slowed each month since peaking at 725 square kilometers (280 square miles) in November 2024, following significant Russian movements on the front line since the previous summer.

Russian Railways’ website and app were knocked offline by a major DDoS attack. Despite disruptions, ticket sales at stations continued as teams worked to restore services.

Russia’s state-owned railway company, Russian Railways (RZD), reported a massive DDoS attack that took down its official website and mobile application.

“Our website and mobile application have been subjected to a massive DDoS attack. We are working to restore them as soon as possible,” RZD stated on Telegram on the morning of April 1.

Tens of thousands in southern Ukraine left without power as Russia denies targeting energy sites. Ukrainian Foreign Minister accuses Moscow of repeatedly striking power facilities.

Tens of thousands of people in southern Ukraine are without power following Russian strikes, Ukrainian officials said Tuesday, despite Moscow’s claims that it is not targeting the country’s energy infrastructure.

Russia has rejected a joint US-Ukrainian proposal for an unconditional ceasefire but claimed it had agreed to a temporary halt on strikes against Ukrainian energy sites.

The disappearance of the speaker of the Coordination Council, who was also in charge of financing, has disrupted the exiled Belarusian parliament’s activities.

Anzhelika Melnikova, the speaker of the Belarusian opposition’s Coordination Council, has been missing along with her two children since March 25.

The Coordination Council for the Transfer of Power is a non-governmental political body that emerged during the mass protests against Belarus’ 2020 presidential election, which most commentators consider having been fraudulent.

Kyiv protests the forced conscription of Ukrainian citizens of occupied territories into the Russian military to fight against their own countrymen.

Moscow launched the traditional spring conscription campaign on Monday alongside efforts to convince other Russian citizens to volunteer to join the military. Ukraine’s government complained that thousands of those new conscripts are Ukrainian citizens that will be forced to fight against their fellow countrymen.

A presidential order signed into law by Russian leader Vladimir Putin set the total number of draft-age citizens the state needs to join the Russian military, during the year’s annual spring call-up at 160,000 men.

Zaluzhny still leads in trust, but Zelensky is gaining ground. Is Ukraine’s political landscape shifting?

Former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and current Ambassador to London, Valery Zaluzhny, is the most trusted public figure in Ukraine, with 62% of Ukrainians expressing confidence in him, according to a recent survey.

The poll, conducted by the Socis Center from March 14-23, 2025, surveyed Ukrainians across government-controlled areas, excluding Russian-occupied territories. The study used face-to-face interviews and has a statistical margin of error of 2.6%.

Stefan Korshak, Kyiv Post’s military correspondent, shares his perspective on recent developments in Russia’s war in Ukraine.

I’ll start this off with a screen grab from the first Ukrainian official Air Force video interviewing an F-16 pilot. There’s not a lot of useful information. The pilot says F-16s are great and the Russians are afraid of them, and he doesn’t say anything about the Americans cutting off spare parts and targeting information, so no surprises there.

But among the images in the video was a shot of three (!) Ukrainian F-16s flying somewhere. I’m pretty sure that’s the biggest multi-ship visual we have of Ukrainian F-16s, ever. So, image.

Russian forces are increasingly using toxic munition drops with gas banned by the Geneva Conventions against troops in Ukraine, with confirmed cases near Kupyansk.

The Russian military has begun more actively using munition drops containing toxic substances, according to Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, on Monday, March 31.

He added that several such incidents have recently been reported in the Kupyansk sector of the Kharkiv region.

The world in focus, as seen by Canadian leading global affairs analyst Michael Bociurkiw in a quick review of the biggest news in international media today.

Aid groups arriving in the worst-hit areas of Myanmar said there was an urgent need for shelter, food and water after last week’s devastating quake, while in Bangkok, rescuers pressed on searching for life under the rubble of a collapsed skyscraper. More than 2,000 people died in the 7.7 magnitude quake, which hit around lunchtime on Friday (Mar 28), and as aid teams made it into areas near the epicentre, it became clear to them that a massive humanitarian effort was required for those who survived. In Mandalay, a resident told Reuters that people were desperately trying to organise their own efforts to dig bodies out of rubble as there was not enough equipment or rescue teams, and locals were wary of aftershocks. “People went back inside the building in the daytime but still not dare to sleep at night,” the resident said “People are still sleeping outside and started getting sick ... as the ground has been hit by sun the whole day and so it’s hot.” - Channel News Asia

China sent its army, navy, air and rocket forces to surround Taiwan for drills Beijing said were aimed at practising a blockade of the self-ruled island. China insists democratic Taiwan is part of its territory and has threatened to use force to bring it under its control. Beijing has increased the deployment of fighter jets and naval vessels around Taiwan in recent years to press its claim of sovereignty, which Taipei rejects. Taiwan’s defence ministry said Beijing had deployed its Shandong aircraft carrier group as part of 19 warships around the island. The exercises are aimed at sending a “stern warning and forceful deterrence” to alleged separatists in Taiwan, Beijing said. This week’s drills are the biggest since February, when Taipei said that China staged a “live-fire” combat drill with aircraft and warships in an area about 40 nautical miles (74 kilometres) off the island’s south. Taiwan’s military responded by sending forces to “monitor, alert and respond appropriately” - France 24

Most Ukrainians see Europe as a fair-minded peace-seeking ally, while two thirds believe the US is pressuring Kyiv into concessions because of growing fatigue with the war.

The majority of Ukrainians - 64% - consider Europe to be an ally that seeks peace with Russia based on fair terms. In contrast, attitudes toward the US are less favorable: 67% of respondents believe that America is tired of Ukraine and is pressuring Kyiv to make unacceptable concessions to Russia. These findings were published by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) based on surveys conducted in February and March.

As the chart below shows, the perception is that Ukraine’s relationship with Europe is almost a mirror image of that with the US.

Russia’s shift in tactics does not signal a commitment to a ceasefire. Instead, it may indicate that Moscow is stockpiling resources to escalate future attacks on Ukraine.

For the first time in nearly six months, Russia did not launch Shahed strike unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) over Ukraine, instead attacking with cruise missiles and guided aerial bombs.

“There were no strike UAVs. We are monitoring further – until it means nothing,” wrote Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council, on Telegram.

Mustafa Nayyem, a Ukrainian journalist and politician, has obtained and analyzed the text of the US-UA Reconstruction Investment Fund draft agreement and weighs in on the risks and opportunities.

Bloomberg, Financial Times, The Economist, The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Politico, Forbes, Ukrayinska Pravda, Dzerkalo Tyzhnia, NV, LB, Babel, and others have already written about the agreement with the US to create the fund. The fact of its existence has been recognized and not denied – as well as the key details outlined in numerous analytical materials.

I also got the deal – not from sources in the Ukrainian or American government, and certainly not from individuals or entities that could even theoretically be linked to Russia.

Wang Yi is in Moscow and met his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov for talks on Tuesday. He will also meet President Vladimir Putin during the visit, the Kremlin has said.

China is ready to play a “constructive role” in ending the conflict in Ukraine but will back Russia to defend its “interests”, top diplomat Wang Yi told Russian state media in an interview published on Tuesday.

Moscow and Beijing have deepened political, military and economic cooperation since Russia ordered its full-scale military offensive on Ukraine in February 2022.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock reiterated Berlin’s support for Ukraine in Kyiv during what might be her last visit as Berlin’s top diplomat.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock arrived in Kyiv on Tuesday, April 1, in what might be her last visit to Kyiv as Berlin’s top diplomat.

Upon her arrival, Baerbock announced an additional “€130 million ($141 million) in humanitarian aid and stabilization funds” and reiterated Berlin’s support for Kyiv from both the current and incoming administrations.

Ukraine has been increasingly integrating robotic technology into its military operations to enhance effectiveness and minimize dangers to troops.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense plans to deliver 15,000 robotic systems to the battlefield in 2025, a significant increase from the previous year, a top defense official said Monday, March 31.

Hlib Kanevsky, head of the ministry’s procurement department, told the Ukrainian news outlet Ekonomichna Pravda that production of robotic systems will see a major boost compared to 2024.

David Arakhamia denied secret talks on holding elections during wartime, while Ukraine’s Central Election Commission says the country needs major recovery before any vote can happen.

David Arakhamia, the head of Ukraine’s Servant of the People majority party, has denied reports of a meeting in the President’s Office regarding preparations for elections.

In a comment to the Suspilne media on March 31, he stated that he did not participate in such a meeting and insisted that no such meeting had taken place at all. His remarks were a response to The Economist’s article suggesting that preparations for elections might already be underway.

America’s top diplomat, Marco Rubio, is preparing to attend his first NATO meeting of foreign ministers since the Trump Administration took over. The focus will be on Ukraine.

Washington – US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is heading back to Europe on Wednesday to meet with his NATO counterparts for the first time, with the focus on Ukraine and other key topics, and to get the transatlantic relationship off on the right foot, Kyiv Post’s Washington correspondent, who will be covering the trip, reports.

Rubio will attend the NATO Foreign Ministers meeting to discuss security priorities for the Alliance, including increased defense investment and securing a lasting peace in Ukraine, the State Department said Monday.

The Russian military is suffering an epidemic of tuberculosis among soldiers who have served in the war in Ukraine, local media have reported.

The Moscow Times cited one former military patient as saying the Moscow hospital he was in had around 1,000 tuberculosis patients.

The paper said a likely reason for the outbreak is the recruitment of prisoners to serve at the front.

The Russian franchise of the NRJ group began broadcasting from occupied Donetsk in January 2024, combining international pop music with pro-Kremlin propaganda broadcasts.

The independent Russian news site Insider.ru published an article on Monday, March 31, reported how the Russian subsidiary of the global French pop music radio broadcaster NRJ opened a separate service in occupied Donetsk in January 2024 in which it installed a 1 kW transmitter providing broadcast coverage out to 50 kilometers (31.25 miles).

The Paris based NRJ group, which derives its name from the French word énergie, was founded as a single pop music radio station in 1981 before evolving into a worldwide group consisting of more than 33 subsidiary FM stations, around 220 internet stations and 12 mobile applications, as well as TV music video channels and many other services.

In a new intercept, Russian border residents lash out against Muscovites when they hear of drone strikes on the capital. “While poor people suffer, Moscow dances and sings.”

Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) has released a new audio intercept of phone conversations between residents of Russia’s border regions reacting to a massive wave of Ukrainian drone attacks. Strikes on the Moscow region, in particular, have triggered bitter comments, revealing deep frustration and resentment toward the Russian central government.

In the recording, a woman from the Bryansk region expresses open cynicism, almost gloating that the war has “finally reached” the capital, and slams the state’s indifference toward ordinary people outside of Moscow.

Trump’s envoy to Putin waxed sycophantic over Putin’s putative prayer for Trump. Will people see through the circus before too much damage is done?

President Volodymyr Zelensky faces a very challenging conundrum. He either plays along with US President Trump or he loses American military support and intelligence sharing. Or he can be straightforward and direct and rely strictly on the Europeans who are stepping up in their support and increasing their capability.

Zelensky has told Trump many times that Putin does not want peace and that he has breached numerous ceasefires even during Trump’s prior term. Trump feigns amnesia. Or is it ignorance? European leaders have confirmed that opinion on many occasions. Trump denies the obvious allusions to some long-term relationship with Putin, perhaps even the KGB.

Dozens of attacks in Europe can be attributed to Russia and its proxies since the start of the war in Ukraine over three years ago, data analyzed by the Associated Press news agency shows.

AP has documented 59 incidents that have been officially blamed on an extension of the Kremlin’s war efforts commonly dubbed ‘hybrid-war’ tactics. The events recorded range from the dissemination of propaganda and disinformation to cyberattacks and acts of sabotage, as well as murder plots and espionage, AP reported.

The operations, described by the head of Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service as a “staggeringly reckless campaign,” have involved the hacking of politicians and critical infrastructure, acts of arson, and a plot to plant explosives on cargo planes, AP said.

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• US President Donald Trump stated on March 30 that there is an unspecified “psychological deadline” for Russia to agree to a general ceasefire amid continued Russian efforts to hold the temporary ceasefire in the Black Sea hostage to stall efforts toward a general ceasefire and extract additional concessions from the West.
• Russian officials continue efforts to undermine the proposed US-Ukrainian mineral deal by promoting potential US-Russian rare earth mining projects.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to sow division between the United States and Europe.
• Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide financial and military aid to Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk and Sumy oblasts and near Kupyansk, Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka.
• Russia is reportedly struggling to restore what few tanks remain in its stocks.

Security Service detains three Russian military intelligence assets whose main task was to target defense plants and arms depots in the capital.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has detained three Russian military intelligence assets whose main task was to coordinate Russian missile strikes on Kyiv, targeting defense plants and arms depots, the SBU press office reported.

It was established that the perpetrators had been acting separately, while being supervised by the same handler, a Russian military intelligence operative who previously had been identified.

As Finland’s leader calls the US president a “skillful negotiator,” analysts wonder if Trump’s threat of oil “tariffs” on Russia is a useful bargaining tool after all.

 US President Donald Trump’s quote over the weekend that he is “pissed off” about Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin’s resistance to a ceasefire in Ukraine may have reverberated around the Kremlin’s walls, but analysts are wondering if Putin has tuned out that noise completely as they question what the self-described deal-maker-in-chief in the White House can actually do about it.  

“If I think they’re tapping us along, I will not be happy about it,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday, referring to Putin.