‘Putin Won’t Finish Until We Finish Him Together’– War in Ukraine Update for Jan 11

Overview:

• Civilian killed in Russian air strike on Donetsk coal mine complex
• Despite freezing conditions, Moscow’s forces on the move near Bakhmut
• See alleged destruction wreaked by weekend strike on Russian air base
• Lithuania confirms $220M in aid, including armored personnel carriers and ammo
• NATO countries on Black Sea to coordinate de-mining operations
• AFU positions still under attack on left bank of Dnipro

Man found buried beneath rubble of destroyed coal mining company

Russian forces on Wednesday launched air strikes on the complex of a coal mining operation in Donetsk, killing at least one civilian. Emergency crews found a man’s body under the debris of the building hit by a missile attack in Myrnohrad, about 50 km northwest of Avdiivka, the national emergency services said on Facebook.

“This morning, the enemy attacked one of the coal-mining enterprises in the city of Myrnohrad. The missile hit the three-story administrative building, partially destroying it from the 3rd to the 1st floor. According to reports from the ground, one person was under the rubble,” the emergency services office wrote.

New images purport to show damage from Saky air base strike

Fresh footage has surfaced online apparently showing the aftermath of Ukraine’s Jan. 6 airstrike on Russia’s Saky air base in Crimea.

Over the weekend, Moscow stayed mum on Kyiv’s claims that it successfully had carried out two missile strikes on the Russian military base near Sevastopol, saying only that it had knocked down four incoming missiles in the area.

The recent imagery, although unconfirmed, seems to show that the AFU’s missiles found their targets in hangars and buildings surrounding the airfield. The Saky base, built in the 1930s, was used by the Soviet Union until 1992 when it came under Ukraine’s command.

The Russians have used the Crimean base since illegally annexing the peninsula in 2014, housing such aircraft as the Sukhoi Su-24M/MR, the Sukhoi Su-30SM, and the Tupolev Tu-1344A-4, and acting as home to the 43rd Independent Naval Assault Aviation Regiment.

Other Topics of Interest

British Intelligence Predicts More Russian Losses

So far, 465,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the Ukraine invasion, and with a new offensive, many more are likely to follow, British intelligence says.

Operations: Donetsk

Geolocated footage published on Wednesday shows Moscow’s forces advancing southwest of Bakhmut, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported.

Russian observers on the ground claimed that the Kremlin’s forces moved west and southwest of Khromove (west of Bakhmut) and on the northwestern approaches to Klishchiivka (southwest of Bakhmut), likely comprising elements of the Russian 331st Airborne (VDV) Regiment (98th VDV Division)

Fighting continued northeast of Bakhmut near Vesele, west of the city near Bohdanivka and Ivanivske, and southwest near Klishchiivka and Andriivka, the ISW reported, noting that a Ukrainian brigade operating in the area said that freezing weather conditions are “contributing to less intense infantry assaults.”

In Vilnius, Zelensky renews calls for more air defenses

“In recent days, Russia hit Ukraine with a total of 500 devices: we destroyed 70 percent of them,” President Volodymyr Zelensky told a press conference in Vilnius, at the start of his visit to the Baltics. “Air defense systems are the number one thing we lack.”

Zelensky arrived on Wednesday morning in the Lithuanian capital for an unannounced visit. He is also scheduled to make stops in Riga and Tallinn, all of which have been among Ukraine’s most dependable and vocal partners during the full-scale Russian invasion. The three former Soviet republics, with a combined population of about six million people, have been NATO members since March 2004.

 “Putin won’t finish this until we all finish him together,” Zelensky said. “Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova may be next.”

At Wednesday’s press conference, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said his country was providing a long-term commitment of aid to Ukraine worth €200 million ($220 million) per year, including ammunition and armored vehicles to be shipped in February.

Operations: Dnipro River

Moscow’s troops made confirmed advances this week along the left bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region, the ISW reported. Geolocated footage from Tuesday seems to show that Russian forces advancing southwest of Krynky, while both Ukrainian and Russian sources confirmed that battles continue all along the east bank.

Black Sea nations to ink a de-mining deal to make shipping safer

Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania will sign a memorandum of understanding in Istanbul on Thursday, AFP reported, establishing an official body to supervise the demining of the countries’ Black Sea coasts and international shipping routes.

“These activities are entirely peaceful in nature and are not directed against any other country,” the Bulgarian defense ministry said in a statement. “It is expected to help improve interaction and good neighborly relations between the participants, without replacing NATO’s presence and ongoing deterrence and defense activities in the Black Sea area.”

Russian mines have washed up in the Black Sea waters of the three NATO member states, AFP noted, posing a great threat to cargo ships in the area, despite Ukraine’s efforts to overcome Moscow’s blockade and continue maritime commerce in and out of its ports.